Sunday, February 7, 2010

the great bust of 2010 (coming soon to an economy near you)

I'm writing this with 6 days to Chinese New Year ("CNY") and counting and the Malaysian stockmarket is so down that the bottom is nowhere in sight. Gone is the usual pre-CNY rally or maybe there could be a feeble run-up in the dying days of the year of the Ox. Frankly, i'm not surprised. I am in agreement with some economists who take a very dim view of events of the past couple of years, to wit, the pump-priming of economies world-wide with cash that ain't there. You see, when you prop up a corpse with no matter how much stuffing/binding ala "Heart of Darkness" John Malkovich the ending scene, the corpse sits upright but it's STILL dead meat. The vitality of the American economy is - how shall i put it - a thing of the past. We can count ourselves lucky that China and India are on the up and up thanks to their enormous domestic economies and that picks up a little of the slack. But don't hope too much. The Chinese economy is still but a third of the USA and India is even smaller. So all that pump-priming is wasted effort in my humble opinion. Let the corpse fall to the ground and let the shit hit the fan. At least we'll all get that short sharp shock (hopefully) needed to correct whatever inefficiencies in the world economy so we'd be re-aligned truly and better afterwards. Throwing money when you have no money to throw around is always bad business, me thinks. It leads to governments getting heavily in debt and that would drive long-term bond rates up per se. So logically they HAVE to raise interest rates in the US from the zero now. They have to, no choice about that. Well, we (Malaysia) are going to soon anyway. Hmmm, at least now i can afford to buy an economy meal with my interest from my savings. I hope.

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